Computable Dynamic Input-OutputBalance and Its Application

Abstract

The poles in a multipolar world are formed and function stably when a state devotes due attention to the development and implementation of structural policy. This involves using suitable tools for solving a wide range of problems: from setting up monitoring and technological modernization of the economy to changes in institutional systems. When structural reforms are applied to any country's economy, the primary concern should be how to establish dynamic characteristics that will ensure the intended responsiveness to controls while also dampening the reaction to negative shocks. Therefore, the search for new methods and tools for developing and implementing structural policy and also for assessing its effectiveness becomes a crucial undertaking. Organizing such efforts is one of the primary tasks of government. However, one should keep in mind that there is a high probability of miscalculations and errors when arriving at seemingly justified decisions. This susceptibility to error obliges those in charge of economic management to ensure that there are formalized and continuously employed means for identifying errors and deciding on necessary changes in economic behavior. Experience in analyzing all kinds of dynamic systems, including especially economic ones, shows clearly that such studies will be most comprehensive and meaningful when their objects can be formalized in a model using differential equations. This article addresses precisely that kind of dynamic input-output balance (IOB). The study also presupposes that official statistical data should fully confirm the model's solutions to problems. The purpose of this research is to improve the toolkit for analyzing structural policy, and its output is a computable model of dynamic IOB, which enables quantitative analysis of the structural dynamics for reaching a stated goal and which solves a set of related problems typical of input-output analysis. The model used for the study employed information from the Rosstat base tables for 2011 and 2016.