Dynamic model of inter-industry balance, the problem of its digitizing and simulation of structural transient processes

Abstract

This paper represents the authors’ concept and mathematical support for investigation of structural transient processes in macroeconomics, their statistical research base in the field of inter-industry analysis, structural forecasting, sustainability, economic dynamics and economic growth. The mathematical research is formalized by Cauchy problem for ordinary differential equations. In addition to these areas of analysis, our work gives new opportunities to the investigation of economic systems inter-industry persistence. The proposed analysis of transient processes in macroeconomics has no analogues in economic research and it is intended to the results development and evaluation in the implemented economic policy. Based on official statistics data, the article solves the problem of digitizing the dynamic model of inter-industry balance, presented in the form of the system of differential equations. Originally, this model has been transferred from a set of “purely theoretical constructions” to the class of computable ones, i.e., econometrically (quantitatively, numerically) defined models. Our research has revealed the advantages of calculation of matrix exponent and its integral in analysis and forecasting tasks over the other numerical methods. The proposed method makes it possible to construct effectively a difference scheme for integration with any step of observation of the economy aptitude for expanded reproduction. An important task was to ensure computational aptitude for the author's theory of structural/proper dynamic features of the economy as a system. It became necessary to develop methods for generating our own statistical database of computational studies. It would be impossible to quantify the main dynamic inter-industry model without this problem solution.