GEOINFORMATION MODELING OF POPULATION DENSITY DYNAMICS IN THE STAVROPOL KRAI

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the issues of geoinformation modeling of population density dynamics at the regional level, as well as the territorial features of the distribution and changes in the population of the Stavropol Krai for the period from 1959 to 2020. To model the population density of the constituent entity based on data from the All-Union and All-Russian censuses, a method was chosen to create digital models using algorithms for estimating kernel density. MapInfo geographic information software with the Vertical Mapper and Global Mapper modules, which have the necessary functionality for modeling and analysis spatial data, were chosen as tools for spatial analysis and mapping of population density. The author's methodology for creating population density maps is proposed, which makes it possible to take into account the entire area and configuration of a settlement when performing modeling and, accordingly, more accurately display the settlement framework. Using modeling technologies and spatial analysis we identified regional features of population density dynamics in the Stavropol Krai for the last six census periods in particular, as well as for the 60-year period 1959-2020, in general. The presented methodology for creating maps of changes in population density in a region allows us to reflect with a high degree of reliability the ongoing changes in the evolution of settlement. The created models can be useful for studying settlement and demographic processes in the territory of the Stavropol Krai; they allow drawing conclusions and predicting the directions of development of certain parts of the region; they can also be useful in carrying out territorial planning and making management decisions within the framework of regional policy.