GEOINFORMATION ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL TOWNS IN RUSSIA IN THE POST-PANDEMIC PERIOD

Abstract

Small towns, making up the vast majority of urban settlements in Russia and remaining the nodal elements of the spatial framework, continue to perform a critically important function of service centers for vast territories. Despite limited resources, demographic aging and a general tendency to shrink, their role in conditions of fragmentation of the developed space and reduction of the service sector in rural areas is only increasing. At the same time, this group of cities is extremely heterogeneous and demonstrates different development trajectories determined by a set of factors, among which the position in the settlement system relative to large cities and agglomeration centers is key. The relevance of the study is due to the need to analyze the position of small towns in the settlement system, primarily in relation to large agglomeration cores. In the context of increasing spatial polarization, it is of fundamental importance to identify patterns that determine the demographic dynamics of small towns, depending on the scale of the nearest large center and transport accessibility to it. The dominant trend of depopulation in most small towns is accompanied by the steady growth of a significant part of them, which indicates the complex nature of center-peripheral interactions and requires the use of modern analysis methods, including geoinformation technologies. International experience, especially in the light of the changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrates a structural shift in the spatial preferences of the population, creating new opportunities for the development of peripheral territories. The methodological basis of the study was a comprehensive GIS analysis, including spatial statistical methods and geoinformation modeling. To assess spatial interaction, the binary logistic regression method was used, and GIS tools were used to model the probability of demographic growth as a function of the scale of the central core and the distance to it. The conducted research revealed the fundamental patterns of the spatial organization of small towns in Russia in the context of agglomeration influence, demonstrating a clear center-peripheral influence on development. The revealed spatial structure is characterized by a multilevel organization with a regular alternation of growth and depression belts. Geoinformation modeling made it possible to determine critical distances with high accuracy and identify specific zones and thresholds.