GIS ANALYSIS OF THE ROLE OF LARGE CITIES OF THE STAVROPOL KRAI IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC AGENDA OF THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA

Abstract

The article presents a GIS analysis of the role of cities in Stavropol Krai with a population of over 100 thous. people in the demographic agenda of the South of Russia. The study used a range of quantitative indicators (natural and mechanical movement, population dynamics, average age, age and sex structure), on the basis of which cartographic works and a multifactorial model were developed. The statistical base was the official materials of Rosstat 2015-2021 and the All-Russian Population Census 2020. Six cities in Stavropol Krai are compared with 30 similar cities located in the North Caucasian and Southern Federal Districts. An analysis of population dynamics in the period 2015-2021 shows that the studied cities were divided into three groups by the nature of changes in the number of residents: growing, stable, shrinking. Depending on the contribution of migration and demographic components to the population dynamics, subgroups are identified in the groups. It has been established that the cities of the reference group differ in their “demographic behavior” and these differences are primarily related to the population size and the city's belonging to a particular population class. A comparative analysis has shown that the cities of Stavropol Krai are noticeable in the demographic agenda of the region by a number of parameters. Stavropol with its satellite city of Mikhailovsk and the resort town of Yessentuki demonstrate high attractiveness for migrants, primarily from neighboring regions. In Nevinnomyssk, Kislovodsk and Pyatigorsk, negative trends in natural population decline are noted against the background of relatively low rates of migration outflow. In general, each city has its own role, trends and reasons that determine the dynamics of the population.