Analysis of macrostructural dynamics framed by the “input–output” methodology3

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to publish the author’s method of the economy structural dynamics formalized analysis based on a dynamic model of input-output balance represented by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is digitized based on the Rosstat data on the formation of the output of goods and services and elements of its own statistical research base. The methodological components of our work are the provisions of systemic, cross-sectoral and structural dynamic analysis. The presented theoretical and methodological statements, brought to a sequence of verified calculations, exploit the basic dynamic model of input-output balance, first published by V.V. Leontief in 1952. For many decades this model remained among so-called “purely theoretical constructions”, since it was never digitized. It was out of many computable models for two reasons: 1) degeneracy of the incremental capital capacities matrix (capital coefficients, as by V.V. Leontief) was believed to be indisputable; 2) the appearance of negative elements in the same matrix when attempting to digitize the model. The results of the work are as follows: the method to digitize the model; the method of numerical assessment of inertia and analysis of structural dynamics in macroeconomics. In a digitized form, the model is made up to solve the structural stability problem, to assess the impact of structural reforms on economic growth, and to analyze the internal / intrinsic dynamic properties of economic systems. This gives possibilities to use this model both independently corresponding to the application, and integrate into the advanced model complexes such as RIM — Russian Interindustry Model by IEF RAS (the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences).