Identifying Noise Variables in Singular Decisions using Counterfactual Reasoning

Abstract

A Flaw in Human Judgment, the authors Daniel Kanheman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein highlight the importance of minimizing bias, i.e. systematic deviation, and noise, i.e. variability, in judgments in order to reduce error. Bias has long been the subject of many discussions but noise is yet to gain the attention it deserves. In this paper, we discuss noise variables in decision-making, particularly in unique, non-recurrent or singular decisions. For this purpose we introduce and utilize the framework of the Weak Completion Semantics to discuss how noise variables may be identified using counterfactual reasoning